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Daily/weekly chart structure sets the macro bias. Only trade in the direction of the dominant trend. Impulsive phases = highest probability; corrective phases set counter-trend caution zones. Must agree with all 4 layers — macro alone is not enough.
② 4H EMA Cloud
4H EMA21 vs EMA55 cloud direction. Bull when EMA21 above EMA55, bear when below. Acts as the medium-term trend filter sitting between the daily macro and the 1H channel reading. Must agree with all 4 layers before any trade fires.
③ 1 Hour
Price oscillates within a bearish or bullish channel on the hourly. Only enter when price is at the channel boundary — resistance (bear) or support (bull). Break of the hourly channel = CHoCH confirmation signal. Mid-channel = stand aside.
④ 15 Minute
After 15m CHoCH confirmed, wait for price to retest the Order Block (OB) or FVG that caused the CHoCH. Limit entry at OB 50% / Fib 38% for fib-class pairs, or wick-extreme for wick-class pairs. Stop beyond swept structural extreme. Target next liquidity zone. Partial signals (1/4, 2/4 or 3/4) are WATCH only — never entered.
Methodology · production rules per pair class
Each pair's headline win-rate & backtest card pull from the
cache + entry methodology that performed best in the May 2026
review (struct / auto-EW / +50/200):
FX majors except AUD/USD
(EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD) —
STRUCT macro + wick entry, full 1R risk.
Structural-break direction outperformed auto-EW by 1.5–6 pts on these pairs.
AUD/USD, FX minors, crypto —
AUTO-EW macro + wick entry, full 1R risk.
Auto-EW edged structural on AUD/USD; the auto-EW pattern detector is
the production macro for minors & crypto.
Commodities (XAU, XAG, Brent) + indices (DAX, NAS, etc.) —
AUTO-EW macro + Fib 38% half-size entry, 0.5R risk.
Half-size Fib produced higher net R on these instruments.
Live signals and Telegram alerts follow the same per-class rule
(no wick alerts on Brent, no Fib alerts on EUR/USD). The
comparison caches are preserved for future re-evaluation.
⏱ 15m OB DETECTION
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▸ 4/4 Equity Curve — All Markets Combined · $1,000/signal base
Green dot=WIN · Red dot=LOSS · Apr 2025–Apr 2026
⚠ Backtest Disclaimer: Results reconstructed from documented Apr 2025–Apr 2026 price turning points. Confluence rules applied consistently — OB/FVG retest entry, structural stop beyond swept extreme, liquidity zone target. Slippage, spread and execution delay are not modelled. 4/4 confluence filter applied strictly (EW · TL · NW · 4H EMA21/55 cloud). Past performance does not guarantee future results.
DE40 + DJ30 reverted to FIB half-size methodology (2026-06-10j) — the 10i wick switch was based on a small-sample backtest; production WR (50% / 47.8%) showed no real edge. Auto-EW-integrated backtest in progress. AUD/CAD remains dropped from the universe (chronic low WR drag).
▸ Full Signal History — All Markets
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